South Korea’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—has declined sharply in recent decades and is now among the lowest in the world, with the country experiencing negative natural population growth since 2021. South Korea’s total fertility rate has dropped to around 0.7 children per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1, leading to more deaths than births each year. In contrast, neighboring North Korea maintains a higher RNI due to a fertility rate closer to 1.8, though it too is experiencing gradual decline. China, another neighbor, recently saw its RNI turn negative as well, with a fertility rate below 1.2 and an aging population. Japan, like South Korea, has long faced negative natural increase, with a fertility rate of about 1.3 and a shrinking, rapidly aging population. Thus, while low or negative RNI is a common trend among South Korea and its neighbors, South Korea’s decline is particularly steep and rapid, making its demographic challenges especially acute.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.991 | 42,869,000 |
| 1995 | 1.049 | 45,105,079 |
| 2000 | 0.832 | 46,840,607 |
| 2005 | 0.399 | 47,988,429 |
| 2010 | 0.436 | 49,258,140 |
| 2015 | 0.3 | 50,646,419 |
| 2020 | 0.009 | 51,577,174 |
| 2024 | -0.045 | 52,081,799 |
| 2025 | -0.055 | 52,189,955 |
| 2026 | -0.072 | 52,290,736 |
| 2030 | -0.161 | 52,578,760 |
| 2035 | -0.319 | 52,598,115 |
| 2040 | -0.47 | 52,189,080 |
| 2045 | -0.618 | 51,396,446 |
| 2050 | -0.779 | 50,217,135 |
| 2055 | -0.916 | 48,686,856 |
| 2060 | -1.004 | 46,946,992 |
| 2065 | -1.072 | 45,099,740 |
| 2070 | -1.13 | 43,195,563 |
| 2075 | -1.169 | 41,273,432 |
| 2080 | -1.197 | 39,382,043 |
| 2085 | -1.211 | 37,533,529 |
| 2090 | -1.211 | 35,771,529 |
| 2095 | -1.196 | 34,106,148 |
| 2100 | -1.143 | 32,579,712 |
Data from US Census International Database